Pahalgam terror attack that killed 27 Indians should force the Indian state to get smart, not just angry. I am just jotting down some key points that occured. This is by no means a policy prescription or advise.

Security lapse - for sure

I am addressing this first. There is no question about this. There was a lapse. Eyewitness accounts by victims say that they had to call the police control room by phone. Help arrived long after the carnage was over. Some reports say security forces had to run 4.5km to get there! The point is, this is a well known tourist hotspot visited by thousands. Even the UAE Prince posted pictures of his past visit! Given that, it is criminal that not even one constable was there to keep an eye! No armed police behind sandbags like we see in Delhi or elsewhere.

So forget Pakistan, forget LeT and whoever else, our own inefficiency contributed to this. There is no easy way to say this.

Having said that, I am hoping this aspect will be probed, rectified ASAP whether or not it is publicly acknowledged given how everything gets politicised in India.

Let’s forget Israel comparisons

We, and that includes myself, tend to become experts and give gyan on things we know very little about. One nonsensical comparison that is often seen on SM is “Israel would have dont this, done that”. Let’s get that over with rightaway. Isreal is not a foolish state. The way it deals with Gaza and Turkey are VERY different. And the reason is very simple. Turkey is, militarily equal - costs are much higher. Israel is very careful not to provoke Erdogan beyond a point. Israeli army even notifies the Turkish military of strikes closer to their bases in Syria. With a wink and nod they go after their job in Syria or elsewhere with some level of coordination to ensure accidents, while maintaining facade of angry exchanges. So let us stop pretending that Israel will somehow attack Pakistan like it did with Gaza if it were in our position.

Leave it to Modi

Thus it is very important that we leave it to Modi sarkar to figure out the best way to respond. If he drags us into a nuclear war, so be it. If that is what it is gonna take to fix this once for all. If he thinks a mix of economic, covert and other actions are enough for now, so be it as well. I will say this even if Congress were ruling, only they NEVER did anything. Even anti-Modi patrakars like Vir Singhvi have confirmed that. That is no option.

Leave Indian Muslims out of this

We have a right to be disappointed that sections of society that are ready to flood the streets for Gaza or because someone drew some cartoon in some far away country, don’t seem to care about Pahalgam. There are no “ashamed to be” placards despite this being a crime clearly in the name of faith. Yes, the criminals were Pakistanis for the most part. But then no one bothered about Murshidabad or Udaipur either. Be that as it may, there is a very BIG difference between criticising someone for not being proactive in their condemnation versus directing hate at them. Indian Muslims don’t want such terror and should be reassured we trust them and they are part of the solution, not the problem. I wish at the highest levels, this will be reiterated in no uncertain terms.

Balochistan

I am no expert on this topic, but clearly, this is one attack vector we can exploit. How far is it useful? Can we help the Baloch people more so they can help us pay back the Punjabi-Pakistan state?

IMHO the best option is to work with global Western powers, and our allies in the Middle East. We can convince their security agencies and governments that a free Balochistan is in their interest. It clearly is - the mineral wealth and access to sea that China has monopoly on can be challenged. Need for Pakistan and its corrupt military-mullah nexus as so-called allies in the so-called war on terror becomes zero. More importantly, Afghanistan gets access to the sea and strength to pursue its own claims over Pashtun lands. I won’t be surprised at all if Indian gets closer to Taliban. Makes sense. Woke liberals should have no issue! The IMEC corridor can proceed at higher pace, including Afghanistan and free Balochistan.

China

As someone put is so nicely the dragon is the elephant in the room! Pakistan draws strength not just from its nukes but its closeness to PRC. The prospect of 2 front war should make any Indian PM think twice or 5 times. But China uses Pakistan as a cheap client state. Even with the current state of India-China ties, China given all its worries, won’t bother much to help. They don’t want Trump moving in for the kill. Even in the past they didn’t bother much. If we can push the relationship forward with China, I believe there will be much less worry on that front. I think we are already doing this - and given China’s vulnerabilities on multiple fronts, time is ripe. The very prospect of India China rapproachement must change the maths for Pakistani Mullah-General cabal too. China may never agree to delivery Pakistan’s head on a plate to improve its India ties but it may come pretty close if the cost benefit analysis justify it. It has no love lost for jihadist fanaticism or Islamist barbarism - to repeat what I said, it is just using Pakistan as a cheap whore state.

Nukes

It is very easy for me or anyone to sit in a nice chair in a comfy room and say Pakistan will never dare to use its nukes. Not unless extinction of the nation state is imminent. Maybe it is true, but what if it isn’t?

The best we can do is to stop discussing this! We don’t have enough facts in public domain for any sensible discussion.

Economy

It is interesting to see Pakistan responding by shutting airspace and restricting trade. So much for ’lets keep politics out of trade’ arguments. After the massive slap delivered by Asim Munir to our Wagah candle kissing brigade recently, this should give us justification for next 20 years. No trade, no export of ANYTHING - not even medicine. No import of ANYTHING - including services of actors and such. Point is very simple - Pakistan has been a hostile and terror state anyway.

We have many advantages here. Pakistan’s trade with China is already self-defeating - other than donkeys and such, it has nothing to offer. China has massive surplus capacity for many things that Pakistan can make and will never risk its money. It is also a zero sum game with yet another South Asian jihadist controlled state - Bangladesh. Afghanistan on the west makes land route to other parts near impossible. Economic pressure must be a key part of the response - and it must be sustained and effective. In fact, Ronald Reagan defeated the Soviet Union right there. But for this to work, we must be smart.

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