The results are out!
Let there be no beating about the bush, this is not exactly what the BJP expected or wanted.
Forget the “Mission 150” slogans which dynasty’s loyal media servants that want us to believe they are “independent” will crow about. Point is none of the contestants go into battle declaring they are only going to win 50 or 60 seats. Everyone makes grand predictions.
Forget also the “anything less than complete sweep is a loss, because that’s what 2014 was” sort of statements from the dynasty’s courtiers in media. Setting ridiculously high bars and constantly moving them about is what these charlatans have to do to earn their envelopes. No state votes the same way for local, state and national elections with exact same percentages.
Yet we cannot escape the fact that BJP did not get what it wanted out of Gujarat.
But the Pidis of media are already rejoicing, licking their palms in anticipation of return of UPA loot era. More RSTV gigs, “investments” from money bags that profited from out of turn allotment of coal and other natural resources and so on. Are they justified?
The answer is NO. Why?
1. The situation BJP faced in 2017 Gujarat is somewhat similar to AAP’s in May 2014 – it did not lose vote share at all. Just that BJP did even better because of Modi. BJP forgot this and focused on the 7 seat sweep and thought it sat pretty in the subsequent assembly elections. Rest is history. Come 2019 it is foolish too assume voters will vote exactly same way. A chunk of Congress votes may very well go BJP way because this time voters are clearly voting for (or against) Modi. There is no ambiguity. Reverse is less likely because they would have done so already. After all there are hardly any voters that prefer Rupani but dont like Modi!
2. Everyone focuses on Modi’s rallies and personal campaign. We conveniently forget Rahul’s equally aggressive campaign, amplified by media coolies and the usual “intellectual” charlatans. Everything including the kitchen sink was thrown at Modi. Even BJP dissidents like Sinha were roped in. And yet this is the best they could achieve – practically no improvement in vote share. In 2019 their efforts will be more diffused.
3. The three big negatives Rahul focused on – GST, DeMo and economic growth are all getting better by the day. Surat clearly shows this. Not to say they will vanish as factors but diminishing returns will set in. Jobs growth is an issue that may remain relevant – but here again people may focus on how Congress can do better. And Rahul did not answer that question at all and was never challenged by the media Pidis that control the narratives.
4. The soft Hindutva approach as well as temple runs and deliberate ignoring of Muslim voters (once again Rahul was given free pass on this by the corrupt left intellectuals and family Pidis that control the liberal narratives) may all work in Gujarat but will not have equal results elsewhere. Leaving aside the moral aspects of the strategy, there are other parties more blatantly pro-Muslim like BSP, AAP and Owaisis that will fill the void.
Yet one has to also be clear – BJP clearly has more work to do to keep the chair, come 2019.
- Rajasthan, MP if not Chhattisgarh all face anti incumbency and shortfalls in governance to varying degrees. They are much more rural, backward and feudal. Exactly the sort of playground Congress and the ecosystem enjoys.
- The polling dates are also much closer to the 2019 battle and the states happen to be large.
- These states also have regional satraps like Gehlot and young dynasts with no negative track record, like Sachin Pilot.
- BJP will ignore all this to its peril. And it is not clear how much can be done between now and then.Throwing money at the problem may not work given shortage of time.
Amit Shah, Modi & Co have their task cut out to retain the momentum and go into 2019 with minimal losses in the bruising 2018 election season. Sadly the country will suffer. At best we will have suspension of long term reforms and at worse resort to gutter level politics by all sides. The sabotage of winter session (first few days) gives ominous warnings.
This where Modi’s suggestion of simultaneous polls makes sense. Perhaps the Stalinist left “intellectuals” and media Pidis that attack him for being on “campaign mode” all the time should consider that suggestion seriously.