Military angle to Gwadar

As we all know, the Gwadar port is a key hub in the CPEC as well as the OBOR initiative of China. There has been no shortage of the usual left “intellectuals” in India who argue that India should, instead of worrying over China’s influence, join the OBOR bandwagon and “benefit” from it. They also argue that it is simply a business and commercial initiative and India should not see ghosts of  “China threat” everywhere.

Now a Pakistani official has given a rude wake up call to these well meaning useful idiots.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/Chinese-naval-ships-to-be-deployed-at-Gwadar-Pak.-official/article16705411.ece

Read and decide for yourself!

 

Suggestions on demonetisation

Dear Arun Jaitley sahib

NDA government’s bold move is being appreciated by most people despite personal inconveniences. To avoid inconvenience to bulk of ordinary citizens, here are a few suggestions for your consideration.

  1. Wherever there is genuine trace-ability and audit trail as well as small transaction sizes, please allow use of old notes. This means co-operative and other such Tier 2 banks, Insurance companies, PSU payments, even purchase of cars, motorcycles with PAN/Aadhar etc. This list can be kept liberal as long as the major criteria is met – Audit trail. Specific transactions can always be investigated later at random or more.
  2. Why not allow real estate companies also to collect cash, as long as they bank it in and report it? After all, both giver and receiver is forced to bring it into the system and be liable for taxes, if any?
  3. Find innovative ways to pay something back to the ordinary citizens that queued up. A special dividend of even Rs.500 for each citizen that deposited/exchanged/withdrew a maximum of Rs.20,000 between 9th-20th November would go a long way to reach to the bottom layer. If the de-monetisation goes well, we expect almost $20b in “bonus” from RBI? Surely it can be put to good use?
  4. You may want to copy the Singapore government move to declare special tax refund for the next fiscal year, again for low income people. The problem with this in India is, the poorer sections don’t file income tax at all, hence don’t benefit. But we can think of other ways – say a GST Voucher or something.
  5. Build something visible, useful to poor people with the funds flowing from this exercise. Each village or a group of villages should have at least one structure (school, hospital, etc) built and explicitly identified as funded by recovered black money.
  6. Where is the famed RSS/BJP volunteer army? Please tell your party to ramp up their outreach.

We wish you good luck in your massive exercise to rid India of black money.

 

Notes on de-monetisation (₹500 and ₹1000)

Here are our thoughts on this dramatic and far reaching announcement by PM Narendra Modi on 8th Nov

  1. The move targets cash in circulation that has escaped the tax net. Or counterfeit currency.
  2. Regardless what anyone may say of “black money these days is in real estate, gold, overseas bla bla blah” the fact is 86% of money in circulation – i.e., Rs.14 lakh crores (that is 142 followed by 11 zeroes!) comprises of such notes! That’s US$210b approx.
  3. Looking at it as pieces of currency note, that’s 2200 crore pieces! So every Indian has 18 pieces! Ignoring children, prisoners, Indians overseas etc. etc. the average goes up even more! Remember, in rural areas many have not even seen a ₹1000 note in their lifetimes let alone possess one!
  4. It is anyone’s guess how much of it is genuine and how much is undisclosed ill gotten wealth kept in cash. Genuine money could range from cash withdrawn from bank, income earned in cash recently, money in piggy bank (although rarely it is of such denomination), Cash receipts by traders from numerous small customers etc. etc.
  5. We will know quite soon because if the money is genuine, sooner or later, before 30th December, the money will get back into the banking system. People that have small amounts or big amounts but have good explanation, will bank it in. They have nothing to fear.
  6. Those that have lots of cash but don’t have a good story will also bank it in hoping the tax burden will be better than throwing it away. Or perhaps the amount is small (less than ₹200-300k taxman will not be bothered perhaps)
  7. A small percentage of such “black money” will get flushed into white using friends, relatives, workers etc. helping to break it into smaller lots. This cannot be avoided. But someone having, say, ₹10 crore cannot do this unless they look for 500 such friends. That’s impractical. Next time you hear a media idiot mouthing off nonsense about much of the black wealth escaping, wake them up with such common sense facts.
  8. The rest – i.e., money that hoarders cannot deposit because they KNOW they will face much worse than tax bill (politicians, big contractors, goondas, corrupt officials), perhaps JAIL TIME will quietly burn that money and rue their fate. That is already happening!
  9. The government will have pretty good idea of that number, because whatever comes back will be counted as it comes thru the banking channels.
  10. Total as of 8th Nov is also known. The difference is the “bounty” to the economy. How much is it going to be? Your guess is as good as mine.
  11. From that bounty, reduce the cost of printing new notes etc (which anyway is done periodically for various other reasons)
Why new notes again?

This “clever” question has been asked by anarchist politicians like Kejriwal who love to spin conspiracy theories and mouth off preposterous allegations without any proof.

Point is, high value currency notes are NOT BAD per se. It is only when they become vehicles for illegal wealth, they become problem. Law abiding citizens should have the convenience of using larger bills.

Once the bad cash is flushed out of the system, a “reset” button has been pressed. Now big notes can be let out safely. Of course, after another 10+ years they may also be used for black money. But that will not only take a while but also be less of a problem because of this shock therapy.

Fringe benefits

Yet another benefit is the spread of e-money will accelerate.

This not only means more convenience for all but e-money, BY DEFINITION, cannot be black! It requires bank account on the part of the giver and receiver! Bank accounts = Audit trail, records.

A trader getting paid electronically has to also pay his supplier by cheque. And so on. Which means it is accounted for.

This also means the entire system gets cleaned up, drastically reducing chances of tax evasion.

Why should ordinary Indians support it?

Simple. Because we are paying a price for the black money, day in and day out. How?

  1. Because lots of people don’t pay tax, to get same amount of revenue, government is forced to use higher tax rate.
  2. Businessmen doing honest business with receipts get squeezed because they cannot earn the profit that cheaters earn. Which means they cannot pay their staff, advertise, reduce rates etc.
  3. Because there are ways to earn and spend black, corruption is easier to conceal, harder to trace.
  4. A genuine aam-aadmi is always the loser. Imagine you are paying off someone in cash without receipt or evidence. This happens practically everyday. Your legitimate, tax paid money goes into the black economy, never again to benefit anyone other than a cheat! So we end up attacking our own children’s future.
  5. CII is estimating that $20b or Rs.3 lakh crore may come to government as a gift from corrupt hoarders as a result of this move! (see ref 2)

So if you are queuing up and getting frustrated, please think for a few minutes.

No country dramatically becomes clean or rich without such blood,sweat and toil.  Don’t be swayed by lies spread by anarchist megalomaniac politicians and corrupt dynastic maharajas.
References

(links may move or get invalidated over time as not all sites use archival)

  1. FP article re value of cash in circulation citing RBI numbers. http://www.firstpost.com/india/chart-rs-500-rs-1000-notes-form-86-of-total-value-of-currency-in-circulation-3096964.html
  2. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/demonetisation-move-gives-room-to-rbi-to-cut-rates-cii-116111300823_1.html

Will the liberals ever learn?!

The shocking (that is, to the commenterati) victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton has officially declared open the hand-wringing, breast beating season. But if you expect that it would lead to genuine introspection, let alone change of tactics or heart, you may have to wait a lot longer.

In fact, reading the various op-eds, Editorials and columns, one invariably come to the conclusion that despite this huge slap delivered by the electorate, the liberal elites have no intention of reading the writing on the wall. In fact they are doubling down for a more of the same and have launched vitriolic attacks on Trump and his not-yet-begun administration with even more venom.

It should be obvious by now Hillary Clinton was defeated because she as well as her fans in left-lib media insulted and bullied the largely (but not entirely) rural, white, blue-collar Americans who have been devastated over the last few years. The issue is not who is to blame for that or if their woes have any quick fix at all or if Trump has the answers.  It was as if their concerns did not matter and if they raise it, they were bigots, racists, patriarchal, gun-totting loonies. And, of course, Donald Trump was their Chief Trolling Officer.

By the way watch this video, Michael Moore the famous uber liberal activist cum filmmaker predicts exactly why Trump will win – and he turned out to be so right!

Obama’s infamous “cling to guns and religion” remark of 2008 revived in somewhat diluted form, is just one of the many insults thrown at this demography. Hillary too called half of Trump supporters (Almost 60m Americans of various colors voted for Trump) bigoted “deplorables”.

A quick study of the reactions to Trump’s victory shows that attitude has not changed at all.

To start with both Obama, who staked (and destroyed) his own legacy by abandoning his post and joining the Clinton campaign and Hillary herself, were not graceful enough in their messages. The sly references to constitution and democratic values seem to suggest the Democratic Party has some sort of copyright or patent on these and they will be enforced strictly like Steve Jobs did with Apple’s patents. That is far from the truth.

One wonders how the liberal media would have reacted if Donal Trump “conceded” by remarking the Republicans will continue to defend Americans from the future administration’s corruption, sleaze and influence peddling.

And then we have these Editorials and Op-Eds.

Washington Post’s Editorial Board seems to think they are some sort of warriors defending American and its “values” against barbarian Trump. Clearly the acceptance of the verdict is absent or at best, grudging.

In fact, Charles Lane goes even further, making this ridiculous argument that Trump is more dangerous because the elites failed to see the “miracle” coming!

Here, Thomas Friedman of NY Times calls him a “compulsive liar” a strange epithet to use considering he defeated Hillary Clinton, an accomplished serial liar who repeatedly lied about the entire email affair and destroyed evidence. And got her husband, a consummate liar of awesome reputation himself, to meet with the AG presumably to obstruct justice.

The Editorial Board of NY Times too refers to Trump’s “delusions and lies” as if he was the only politician to do so and Hillary was a paragon of truth and virtue!

And they are all making the simple constitutional, democratic, decent moral imperative and duty of support they need to extend to the newly elected leader a magnanimous gift that they, and only they in their large hearted kindness and grace, bestow upon the ineligible usurper!

Clearly the liberals just don’t want Trump to succeed and will throw every spanner they can find into the works.

Across the Atlantic, writing for Guardian, Kate Arnoff was being honest when she declared, perhaps on behalf of the entire liberal class, that “we organise to block him, every step of the way“. Of course, it doesn’t matter what he does. Block we will. The usual over the top Hitler analogies were in abundant supply as well.

Many of them are finally admitting that Hillary was a ‘flawed candidate’ perhaps the understatement of the entire election drama! But then no one saw or smelled this all this while.

With such “friends” the Democrats sure don’t need too many enemies!