Agenda for Yogi Adiyanath

Dear Yogiji

CONGRATS!! You have been chosen. As Tavleen Singh so rightly says it in her column winning is the easy part. She is also correct to say the depravity in UP is so bad, voters ask for very little.

With that in mind let us take the liberty of suggesting an action plan to you.

  1. Ignore the constant sniping from liberal media agents of corrupt dynasts. They are paid to do what they are doing. They get the airtime but people don’t listen to them.
  2. Be careful in what you say and tell your followers to do the same. You know secularism in India is such Azam Khan or Owaisi can say anything but you cannot.
  3. It doesn’t take a lot of money or time to do “development”. Grand schemes, metro railways, big dams and highways can wait. But take simple steps that common man can see for himself and enjoy benefits of. We give a few suggestions on this below:

The development agenda

  1. Ask BJP IT cell to help you create a database of each and every village or settlement in UP. Don’t bother about caste, religion, zone etc.
  2. For each village the database should show statistics on basic things like this picture shows. For cities, use mohallas or blocks, not villages.
  3. Make this publicly available so people can point out mistakes, errors. Suggestions.
  4. Assign local MLA + one minister to each of them. MLA is primarily responsible, minister oversees. Also assign one babu. For opposition wards, assign suitable candidates.
  5. If users click on each cell, it should take them to a page where status of what is being done to solve the issue is shown. For example if power lines are being constructed, the page should show status, which contractor, value etc. So people know who to complain against if they are doing bad job.
  6. Of course, this is basic information, you can add more details such as maps, plans etc also.
  7. Just sit back, monitor and sack anyone not doing his job. Whatever other things you do, such as mandir, cow slaughter, inaugurating big schemes can of course, go on, but don’t forget this main task!
  8. That’s it! You will prove 2019 is no different from 2014 or 2017, even better!

Suggestions welcome!

 

The Ramjas saga – Does left really want freedom?

It is not just naive but dangerous to conclude that the assorted hardcore left (in their usual liberal masks) that are frothing over “liberal values” and “room for debate” in our campuses want that. What they want is monopoly over thought and words. Monopoly they enjoyed in a mutual back scratching deal with corrupt dynasties in the past.

What they instead are fighting for is not just the exact opposite but something left globally as well as in India is quite famous for – monopoly of thought, complete suppression of any opinion that doesn’t fit with their narratives enforced with violence, mass murders and other forms of savagery. All supported by a cabal of charlatans that call themselves humanists, intellectuals, liberals who slam the door shut on any genuine liberal that doesn’t take instructions.

This has been demonstrated time and again in JNU and other left controlled institutions including Lit Fests, academic institutes and think tanks on history, culture etc.

The dangerous pro-jihadi Islamist slogans that the left-Islamist continuum raises in JNU and tried to raise in Ramjas is explained away by some well meaning useful idiots as “youthful idealism”. This is bollocks.

There is no hint of youthful innocence or idealism and there has never been. Today’s Politburo members and commanders of armies of mass murderers and rapists that wreaked havoc in Nandigram, Singur and elsewhere are stocked with the exact same JNU alumni who were supposedly “idealist youth”. They never dared open their mouths against the Tiananmen massacre of students by their handlers in Beijing. Driven by similar ideological thought, today’s leftist students of JNU, AISA, SFI etc are preparing for a career in serfdom to Beijing by being very selective in their quest for liberty, secession, azaadi (Freedom) etc.

Distant Palestine (and assorted obscure Central American or Latin American states) attract their loud support. Kashmir does too. So does Manipur and various other North Eastern states of India. But NOT A WORD on Balochistan, Sindh, Xinjiang, Tibet! So much for their “idealism”. They know a career in Marxism in India requires complete obedience to the holding company’s narratives. Not just Beijing but its “taller than mountain, sweeter than honey” jihadi terrorist subsidiary in Islamabad too can’t be questioned!

An orchestrated campaign is being launched in media sympathetic to the Stalinist left as if the violence was only by ABVP. Nothing can be further from the truth. Violence has always been the hallmark of left right from its founding days. Stalinist “liberal” media even showed a picture of prominent SFI (CPM) goon assaulting a student with false news portraying the victim as the assaulter!

In fact the violence by the left in Ramjas was proudly owned by  several Marxist twitter activists including the one cited in the opindia.com report linked above. This again is not uncommon at all. Left is very famous for proudly owning up to its massacres and atrocities (as a way of sending message to its enemies), even as it deploys its “intellectual” army to cover up its crimes and apply a coat of white paint in the name of “liberal, progressive” values.

If you recall the rapist savagery in Nandigram, Bengal’s Marxist Chief Minister Bhattacharjee proudly congratulated his army of rapist butchers for having “taught a lesson” to the poor villagers protesting against their land being seized for a Chinese businessman. In Kerala, yet another senior Politburo member openly bragged about killing Congress members and was given a gentle knock on the wrist with feathers as “punishment”. Even Chomsky who delivers lectures on humanism and is one of left’s leading intellectual lights, tried to whitewash the mass murders and Polpotist savagery of his fellow left in Nandigram by saying it should not be raked up for the sake of “left unity”.

Given this background, it is very important for BJP as well as ABVP and the right to put the truth out. Given the rigid control of Stalinist left over the curriculum that has prevented Indian students from learning the true horrors of Marxism in Cambodia, China, North Korea and elsewhere as well as the role of Indian left in supporting and furthering these genocides, Modi government would do well to look closely at how true history and facts can be taught to Indian students so they grow up to be true liberals.

 

 

 

 

Budget 2017 – our comments

Most speeches by Finance Ministers follow a predictable template – throw in a couplet here and proverb there, pay homilies to the downtrodden, poor, dalit etc., talk about poverty elimination and so on.

Buried in this poetry and the usual “2% reduction in excise on matchbox”, “3% increase in customs duty on televisions” sort of announcements that waste time and fill pages, are far reaching changes that most casual observers miss entirely.

Because of imminent arrival of GST, thankfully the excise, customs changes are negligible. And they have been pushed to the Annexure not read out item by item.

Despite merger of the railway budget with the Union Budget, not much time has been wasted on minor matters such as extension of trains, addition of coaches etc., that in any normal country a low level official will do.

Thanks Jaitley sir!

  1. Reducing taxes for the entry level slab is a welcome move. Perhaps the limits could have been increased. Even better if these are routinely hiked considering inflation and other factors.
  2. There is also yet another proposal to simplify the ITR form for them. But one has to see how “simple” this form turn out to be, by the time the bureaucrats are done with their tinkering.
  3. There is a plan to ‘ask states’ to remove perishables from APMC monopoly. Our farmers bear the brunt of inefficiency, sloth, harassment and corruption inherent in such state monopolies. Ideally BJP states should have taken the lead in doing this long ago.
  4. A million farm ponds have been constructed this year through MNREGA! This huge number should make a difference to drought management if these are real ponds and don’t merely exist on paper. MNREGA has been criticised for fake projects and leaks in the past.
  5. The target for PM Mudra Yojana a loan scheme primarily targeted at SMEs has been doubled to Rs.2.44 lcr having exceeding this year’s target. Hopefully these loans have been given to micro enterprises that generate thousands of jobs. FM would have done well to present some statistics on this front so the impact is not lost in fine print.
  6. We heard this before, but FM has repeated the shocking number of just 144k tax payers reporting income over Rs.5m many of who area salaried class who have no choice but report. Again the hope is that deposits forced into the banking system by the demonetisation will lead to better compliance. Proof will be visible next year hopefully. FM says 148k people have deposited an average of Rs.3om and this plus other deposits over Rs.500k should keep IT officials busy. The key here is to prioritise and go after the real big fish and not waste time on harassing the small fry. But knowing our babus, chances are the exact reverse will happen unless the FM and PM crack down hard on continuous basis.
  7. The reduction of Long term capital gain eligibility (2 years) plus the base shift should be a huge boon for many.
  8. Reduction in tax for smaller companies a welcome move. These are the ones that deserve help as they create a lot of job for the same investment.
  9. Spending on Namaami Gange plan is way below estimate, this should worry the PM whose constituency is Varanasi. For a priority project this is indeed sad.
  10. Reasonable limits on fiscal deficit (3.2%) have been forecast and the actual performance too has been creditable if the revised estimates are true. This should ease concerns on inflation front.
  11. Scrapping FIPB is a good move though sections of biased media has chosen to see this as concentration of power in PMs hands.

On the whole a balanced budget without much of big bang but without any negative aspects as well.

Implementation, as usual is the key. Devil is in the details.

 

Military angle to Gwadar

As we all know, the Gwadar port is a key hub in the CPEC as well as the OBOR initiative of China. There has been no shortage of the usual left “intellectuals” in India who argue that India should, instead of worrying over China’s influence, join the OBOR bandwagon and “benefit” from it. They also argue that it is simply a business and commercial initiative and India should not see ghosts of  “China threat” everywhere.

Now a Pakistani official has given a rude wake up call to these well meaning useful idiots.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/Chinese-naval-ships-to-be-deployed-at-Gwadar-Pak.-official/article16705411.ece

Read and decide for yourself!

 

Suggestions on demonetisation

Dear Arun Jaitley sahib

NDA government’s bold move is being appreciated by most people despite personal inconveniences. To avoid inconvenience to bulk of ordinary citizens, here are a few suggestions for your consideration.

  1. Wherever there is genuine trace-ability and audit trail as well as small transaction sizes, please allow use of old notes. This means co-operative and other such Tier 2 banks, Insurance companies, PSU payments, even purchase of cars, motorcycles with PAN/Aadhar etc. This list can be kept liberal as long as the major criteria is met – Audit trail. Specific transactions can always be investigated later at random or more.
  2. Why not allow real estate companies also to collect cash, as long as they bank it in and report it? After all, both giver and receiver is forced to bring it into the system and be liable for taxes, if any?
  3. Find innovative ways to pay something back to the ordinary citizens that queued up. A special dividend of even Rs.500 for each citizen that deposited/exchanged/withdrew a maximum of Rs.20,000 between 9th-20th November would go a long way to reach to the bottom layer. If the de-monetisation goes well, we expect almost $20b in “bonus” from RBI? Surely it can be put to good use?
  4. You may want to copy the Singapore government move to declare special tax refund for the next fiscal year, again for low income people. The problem with this in India is, the poorer sections don’t file income tax at all, hence don’t benefit. But we can think of other ways – say a GST Voucher or something.
  5. Build something visible, useful to poor people with the funds flowing from this exercise. Each village or a group of villages should have at least one structure (school, hospital, etc) built and explicitly identified as funded by recovered black money.
  6. Where is the famed RSS/BJP volunteer army? Please tell your party to ramp up their outreach.

We wish you good luck in your massive exercise to rid India of black money.

 

Notes on de-monetisation (₹500 and ₹1000)

Here are our thoughts on this dramatic and far reaching announcement by PM Narendra Modi on 8th Nov

  1. The move targets cash in circulation that has escaped the tax net. Or counterfeit currency.
  2. Regardless what anyone may say of “black money these days is in real estate, gold, overseas bla bla blah” the fact is 86% of money in circulation – i.e., Rs.14 lakh crores (that is 142 followed by 11 zeroes!) comprises of such notes! That’s US$210b approx.
  3. Looking at it as pieces of currency note, that’s 2200 crore pieces! So every Indian has 18 pieces! Ignoring children, prisoners, Indians overseas etc. etc. the average goes up even more! Remember, in rural areas many have not even seen a ₹1000 note in their lifetimes let alone possess one!
  4. It is anyone’s guess how much of it is genuine and how much is undisclosed ill gotten wealth kept in cash. Genuine money could range from cash withdrawn from bank, income earned in cash recently, money in piggy bank (although rarely it is of such denomination), Cash receipts by traders from numerous small customers etc. etc.
  5. We will know quite soon because if the money is genuine, sooner or later, before 30th December, the money will get back into the banking system. People that have small amounts or big amounts but have good explanation, will bank it in. They have nothing to fear.
  6. Those that have lots of cash but don’t have a good story will also bank it in hoping the tax burden will be better than throwing it away. Or perhaps the amount is small (less than ₹200-300k taxman will not be bothered perhaps)
  7. A small percentage of such “black money” will get flushed into white using friends, relatives, workers etc. helping to break it into smaller lots. This cannot be avoided. But someone having, say, ₹10 crore cannot do this unless they look for 500 such friends. That’s impractical. Next time you hear a media idiot mouthing off nonsense about much of the black wealth escaping, wake them up with such common sense facts.
  8. The rest – i.e., money that hoarders cannot deposit because they KNOW they will face much worse than tax bill (politicians, big contractors, goondas, corrupt officials), perhaps JAIL TIME will quietly burn that money and rue their fate. That is already happening!
  9. The government will have pretty good idea of that number, because whatever comes back will be counted as it comes thru the banking channels.
  10. Total as of 8th Nov is also known. The difference is the “bounty” to the economy. How much is it going to be? Your guess is as good as mine.
  11. From that bounty, reduce the cost of printing new notes etc (which anyway is done periodically for various other reasons)
Why new notes again?

This “clever” question has been asked by anarchist politicians like Kejriwal who love to spin conspiracy theories and mouth off preposterous allegations without any proof.

Point is, high value currency notes are NOT BAD per se. It is only when they become vehicles for illegal wealth, they become problem. Law abiding citizens should have the convenience of using larger bills.

Once the bad cash is flushed out of the system, a “reset” button has been pressed. Now big notes can be let out safely. Of course, after another 10+ years they may also be used for black money. But that will not only take a while but also be less of a problem because of this shock therapy.

Fringe benefits

Yet another benefit is the spread of e-money will accelerate.

This not only means more convenience for all but e-money, BY DEFINITION, cannot be black! It requires bank account on the part of the giver and receiver! Bank accounts = Audit trail, records.

A trader getting paid electronically has to also pay his supplier by cheque. And so on. Which means it is accounted for.

This also means the entire system gets cleaned up, drastically reducing chances of tax evasion.

Why should ordinary Indians support it?

Simple. Because we are paying a price for the black money, day in and day out. How?

  1. Because lots of people don’t pay tax, to get same amount of revenue, government is forced to use higher tax rate.
  2. Businessmen doing honest business with receipts get squeezed because they cannot earn the profit that cheaters earn. Which means they cannot pay their staff, advertise, reduce rates etc.
  3. Because there are ways to earn and spend black, corruption is easier to conceal, harder to trace.
  4. A genuine aam-aadmi is always the loser. Imagine you are paying off someone in cash without receipt or evidence. This happens practically everyday. Your legitimate, tax paid money goes into the black economy, never again to benefit anyone other than a cheat! So we end up attacking our own children’s future.
  5. CII is estimating that $20b or Rs.3 lakh crore may come to government as a gift from corrupt hoarders as a result of this move! (see ref 2)

So if you are queuing up and getting frustrated, please think for a few minutes.

No country dramatically becomes clean or rich without such blood,sweat and toil.  Don’t be swayed by lies spread by anarchist megalomaniac politicians and corrupt dynastic maharajas.
References

(links may move or get invalidated over time as not all sites use archival)

  1. FP article re value of cash in circulation citing RBI numbers. http://www.firstpost.com/india/chart-rs-500-rs-1000-notes-form-86-of-total-value-of-currency-in-circulation-3096964.html
  2. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/demonetisation-move-gives-room-to-rbi-to-cut-rates-cii-116111300823_1.html

Will the liberals ever learn?!

The shocking (that is, to the commenterati) victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton has officially declared open the hand-wringing, breast beating season. But if you expect that it would lead to genuine introspection, let alone change of tactics or heart, you may have to wait a lot longer.

In fact, reading the various op-eds, Editorials and columns, one invariably come to the conclusion that despite this huge slap delivered by the electorate, the liberal elites have no intention of reading the writing on the wall. In fact they are doubling down for a more of the same and have launched vitriolic attacks on Trump and his not-yet-begun administration with even more venom.

It should be obvious by now Hillary Clinton was defeated because she as well as her fans in left-lib media insulted and bullied the largely (but not entirely) rural, white, blue-collar Americans who have been devastated over the last few years. The issue is not who is to blame for that or if their woes have any quick fix at all or if Trump has the answers.  It was as if their concerns did not matter and if they raise it, they were bigots, racists, patriarchal, gun-totting loonies. And, of course, Donald Trump was their Chief Trolling Officer.

By the way watch this video, Michael Moore the famous uber liberal activist cum filmmaker predicts exactly why Trump will win – and he turned out to be so right!

Obama’s infamous “cling to guns and religion” remark of 2008 revived in somewhat diluted form, is just one of the many insults thrown at this demography. Hillary too called half of Trump supporters (Almost 60m Americans of various colors voted for Trump) bigoted “deplorables”.

A quick study of the reactions to Trump’s victory shows that attitude has not changed at all.

To start with both Obama, who staked (and destroyed) his own legacy by abandoning his post and joining the Clinton campaign and Hillary herself, were not graceful enough in their messages. The sly references to constitution and democratic values seem to suggest the Democratic Party has some sort of copyright or patent on these and they will be enforced strictly like Steve Jobs did with Apple’s patents. That is far from the truth.

One wonders how the liberal media would have reacted if Donal Trump “conceded” by remarking the Republicans will continue to defend Americans from the future administration’s corruption, sleaze and influence peddling.

And then we have these Editorials and Op-Eds.

Washington Post’s Editorial Board seems to think they are some sort of warriors defending American and its “values” against barbarian Trump. Clearly the acceptance of the verdict is absent or at best, grudging.

In fact, Charles Lane goes even further, making this ridiculous argument that Trump is more dangerous because the elites failed to see the “miracle” coming!

Here, Thomas Friedman of NY Times calls him a “compulsive liar” a strange epithet to use considering he defeated Hillary Clinton, an accomplished serial liar who repeatedly lied about the entire email affair and destroyed evidence. And got her husband, a consummate liar of awesome reputation himself, to meet with the AG presumably to obstruct justice.

The Editorial Board of NY Times too refers to Trump’s “delusions and lies” as if he was the only politician to do so and Hillary was a paragon of truth and virtue!

And they are all making the simple constitutional, democratic, decent moral imperative and duty of support they need to extend to the newly elected leader a magnanimous gift that they, and only they in their large hearted kindness and grace, bestow upon the ineligible usurper!

Clearly the liberals just don’t want Trump to succeed and will throw every spanner they can find into the works.

Across the Atlantic, writing for Guardian, Kate Arnoff was being honest when she declared, perhaps on behalf of the entire liberal class, that “we organise to block him, every step of the way“. Of course, it doesn’t matter what he does. Block we will. The usual over the top Hitler analogies were in abundant supply as well.

Many of them are finally admitting that Hillary was a ‘flawed candidate’ perhaps the understatement of the entire election drama! But then no one saw or smelled this all this while.

With such “friends” the Democrats sure don’t need too many enemies!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Executive summary on CPEC and OBOR

We have started a new page – CPEC Watch. As part of this initiative, you will see articles on related topics in our regular posts.

This article will be updated as we go along so that it remains current and relevant. Date of last update will be shown at the bottom of the article. Links that form sources for this and other articles are given on the CPEC Watch page

  1. CPEC is actually a part of the larger OBOR initiative of President Xi.
  2. OBOR consists of a belt which is actually a series of land routes (road or rail) that connect China to Europe. The “road” is actually a sea lane aka Maritime Silk Route (MSR) which connects various ports, mainly in the Indian Ocean.
  3. CPEC will provide rail connectivity from Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang to Gwadar, a port it is building (or partly built) in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. That’s a distance of over 2000km as crow flies, much longer in reality.
  4. On top of this, CPEC will also feature roads and energy project which primarily address Pakistan’s energy shortfall.
  5. There are other pie in the sky projects linked to OBOR’s MSR part such as BCIM (Bangladesh, India, China, Myanmar) which are in various stages of consideration.
  6. China’s financing initiatives such as AIB are linked to this overall plan.
  7. Substantial share of CPEC dollars ($30b+) go into energy sector projects, primarily coal. These are fast track projects which obviously use a lot of Chinese machinery and labor, not to speak of capital. We are planning a separate article on these projects.

What makes it unique?

  1. The CPEC engagement is unique since thus far China has been reaping the strategic benefits of its illicit affair with Pakistan without paying a cent for it. In fact bills were forwarded to Uncle Sam who was cuckolded by the jihadi Generals. But that is not a workable option any longer.
  2. Now China is literally putting money where its mouth is. That too not Corporate or private sector like Alibaba or Huawei that invest in India, but state funds and that too in a high visibility prestigious project aka OBOR/CPEC on which President Xi has staked his personal reputation.
  3. This means China will not take kindly to any roadblocks, real or perceived. Whether it succeeds or not is another matter altogether.  Its track record overseas, particularly in countries that differ culturally has been mixed. Africa is a good example.
  4. If things don’t go too well for the regime, it may quickly find convenient scapegoats to blame and wash its hands off. Communism has its advantages, it doesn’t have to explain anything to anyone.

——————————

30th October 2016

 

Understanding Quetta Police cadet camp attack

Whenever blood gets spilled in the subcontinent we find that even more ink gets spilled. Most of it is stale propaganda for one vested interest or the other. Rarely is truth spoken with courage.

The love affair of Pakistani state with religious fanatics who are either directly involved in terror or merely one fake facade or two away from the “boys with guns” has not ended and is not going to end soon.

In this context let us try and understand the most recent attack in Quetta that killed 69 including the three “terrorists”.

  1. Numerous fake claims pop up after such attack to take “credit”. But most government reports seem to blame a faction of the Lashkar-e-Janghvi group.
  2. This LeJ is considered an off-shoot of yet another Sunni terror group known as “Sipah-e-Sahaba”. Terror groups in Pakistan float subsidiaries and associates and joint ventures with speed that will put any Hong Kong business tycoon to shame. The state too facilitates such cosmetic makeovers since it allows them to “prove” to the Americans that they have acted against a group, milking more dollars to use to create more such groups. After a while the drama repeats.
  3. Now this SSP itself has again renamed itself to “Ahle-Sunnat-Wal-Jamaat” or ASWJ (don’t confuse with Asian Wall St Journal!)
  4. These groups have been banned, un-banned and re-banned as often as they grouped, re-grouped, renamed themselves.  Usually it follows a major terror attack, PM/Army chief visit to US or a visit by US Secretary of State etc so that more dollars can be milked. Once dust settles they carry on, often with state aid.
  5. Their involvement in various terror acts, going by their own admissions, is beyond doubt.
  6. Just two days prior to the Quetta attack, Pakistan’s interior minister met with the boss of ASWJ – Maulana Ludhianvi. Remember, this is a banned terror organisation even by Pakistan’s loose standards of what constitutes terror. Bit like Carter or Kerry having dinner with the ISIS Caliph.
  7. To add some “masala” to the mix, various other terrorists were also in the meeting with the minister.
  8. It is exactly this group or its off-shoot which carried out the Quetta attack. Remember, such off-shoots are created for providing plausible deniability, a trick Pakistan has mastered over the years.
  9. It is also well known that state funds are provided to the Madrasas run by extremist groups that were part of the meeting. If you wonder why Pakistan funds terrorists that kill Pakistanis, look closely again at the ethnicity, religion or sect of the victims. Most are Ahmedis, Shias, Christians, Hindus, Baloch or Pashtun, rarely the Punjabi elite. The Peshawar school attack that targeted senior officials’ kids was a rare exception.
  10. Pakistani state benefits from such attacks since they can be used to play the victim card and gather more sympathy and dollars to go after the real enemies – Afghanistan and India.
  11. So it can be safely concluded that the Quetta terror attack is basically staged by “friends” of the regime. Or some boys who absorbed their training too well and didn’t care to listen to their tutors once they graduated.
  12. The most interesting aspect of this whole affair is that these groups are not even anti-India or Afghanistan, a traditional excuse offered by Pakistani deep state to justify support. These groups have almost exclusively operated within Pakistan.
  13. Far from “not allowing terror groups to operate”, Pakistani ruling party and its Army allows such groups to openly meet, greet, discuss, get state funds and hold massive rallies.
  14. If this is the sort of ambivalence shown by the state against groups that kill within Pakistan, one can only imagine the situation re groups like LeT that only kill kuffar Hindus in India.
  15. The left liberal cabal in India controlled by hardcore Marxists deliberately ignores, obfuscates, buries such facts to suit its own narrative that stays close to Beijing’s strategic objectives.

Watch the Duterte space

A colorful character that can make our Lalloo Prasad look stale and sober, Rodrigo Duterte has taken over Philippines as its President. The web is full of his hilarious and often offensive remarks so let us not waste any time discussing them. Many of them are about as sensible as a drunk garrulous taxi driver’s.

But then he is President of a nation and what he says and does impacts not only his country but others too. So his recent “break” with the United States, announced in China during a state visit, if carried out even partially will have profound impact.

Basically what he is saying is that US is a has-been, too arrogant and lecturing and unable or unwilling to help his country in its development. So he wants to turn to China the new Don in town. Interestingly similar comments were also made by a prominent Pakistani diplomat recently in the US, where he blatantly threatened Americans that Pakistan may “turn” to China or Russia. As if that is something new!

In fact many leftists in India have been arguing that instead of challenging China’s hegemony in Asia or even South Asia, India should learn to live with it, accept its overwhelming superiority and find ways to benefit from its rise. Be obedient and reap rewards.

There are many domestic and personal compulsions that propel Duterte’s open hostility to US and warm embrace of China. It appears he too suffered visa denials (1) and bad treatment at LAX airport in the past. Ethnic Chinese tycoons control practically all of Philippines economy and are a powerful. It is said that the indigenous populace, deeply suspicious of China and more wannabe American than Ronald McDonald will not support this switch.

Be that as it may, India should watch the space carefully. Two things may happen:

1. Duterte’s overture to China will result in good bargains for Philippines in its various disputes with China as well as economically. China will be generous to its “subjects” and give away more than it otherwise would. Projects and investments will flow not merely to fill order books of factories in China but benefit locals.

2. China will simply use this surrender as an example to arm twist other recalcitrant and fence sitters and drive hard bargains or worse, humiliate even more. Real gains to the Philippines at least in the short and medium term will be marginal.

As China goes about writing big cheques that may or may not bounce (well over $100b at last count (2) ), India should keep a watch on these developments. Given the experience of East Africans and others like Cambodia, this manna from heaven may come with side effects.

May be the lefties are right. May be they aren’t.

 



  1. http://news.abs-cbn.com/blogs/opinions/10/23/16/opinion-duterte-and-the-us-so-it-boils-down-to-a-visa-issue
  2. $24b to BD, $15 to Egypt, $48b to Pakistan, $15b to Philippines counting only the recent ones.